I don’t watch that much TV, and I don’t get out to too many movies (being somewhere just between destitute and surviving), but I do have fingers on the pulse of pop culture and some keen intuition. Here’s my guesses as to how the SAG Awards 2010 are going to go, based on reading the list at the link.
- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series for Television: I’ve heard wonderful things about both Mad Men and of Breaking Bad, but as Bryan Cranston’s show doesn’t get nearly the hype of the Jon Hamm one, and he didn’t win it last year or the year before or the year before that(though nominated thrice). My guess is Jon Hamm, for ignoring him this long.
- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series for Television: I don’t watch any of these shows, but apparently Kyra Sedgwick, Holly Hunter, and Glenn Close are back in the nominations after not winning the year before last. I don’t think they’ll win though, mostly because they’ve only waited two years. My guess is Julianna Margulies, in continuing re-opening the trend (after Sally Field won last year for Brothers and Sisters): doctors and mobsters won the two years before the family drama interruption – the next logical progression is bringing it back with lawyers.
- Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series for Television: This one, in my book, goes to Dexter for bringing John Lithgow onto the cast. Though I haven’t watched this season, I know that Lithgow brings awesomeness to any cast he’s in.
- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series for Television: This one goes to Christina Applegate, mostly for the cancer thing and because Tina Fey won the last two years.
- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series for Television: I’m thinking Tony Shaloub because Monk has had its series finale and Alec Baldwin took it for the past three years.
- Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series for Television: 30 Rock took it last year and The Office won for two years in a row before that. In my head they’ll give it to 30 Rock to continue the trend and for snubbing them in the other awards.
- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries: Jeremy Irons and Kevin Kline are both back on the list, each taking one in the past three years (Paul Giamati is sorely missing). In my mind this only leaves Tom Wilkinson, because I think the running’s slim for Cuba Gooding, Jr. and Kevin Bacon.
- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries: Sigourney Weaver is my best guess, considering I never even heard of any of these movies/miniseries and she’s only been up for one once before. Drew Barrymore hasn’t seen any noms from SAG, and this should tide her over for a while yet.
- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture: Last year it was Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) before that, and the year before that Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), so no theme to draw from. Christopher Plummer has been nominated twice before, and he’s not getting any younger, so I think it’s going to him – a decision based on not seeing any of the movies on the list.
- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture: Kate Winslet, Ruby Dee, and Jennifer Hudson won the past three years. If they keep to the trend it’d be Mo’Nique, but something in my gut says they won’t. Nominated previously for The Departed, Vera Farmiga has a good chance, I think.
- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture: Sean Penn, Daniel-Day Lewis and Forest Whitaker took it these three years past; I think it’s up in the air here between George Clooney and Morgan Freeman.
- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture: Years past saw Meryl Streep, Julie Christie, and Helen Mirren getting the award. This year, I think it’s Meryl Streep, because everyone loves her and because (with 77 miscellaneous awards over her career) she hasn’t won enough yet.
- Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: This one went to Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, and Little Miss Sunshine in the past years. This year, I say it’s heading for Nine, because it’s artsy-fartsy, has singing and dancing, and because it’s not in a single other category, and sometimes you gotta mess with people’s perceptions.
Wow, we made it through this together. Think I’m way off? If you’ve got your own guesses tell me down in the comments, and be sure to include why you think that award’s going where. Tune in to TNT or TBS 8pm on January 23rd, 2010 to find out who, if any of us, are right.